More Signs of the (Credit) Apocalypse
More tangible signs of the credit crisis are appearing every day. Several new reports came in the past week, which collectively paint a grim picture of the immediate future for the credit card industry.
Card issuers report earnings
Bank of America, Citi, Chase, Capital One and Wells Fargo have all recently released their quarterly earnings reports and the commentary accompanying them has often been elucidating. Wells Fargo’s recorded comments seem to summarize how the industry as a whole is responding:
We continued to tighten our underwriting standards, which reduced new account growth, but increased the quality of our new customers. We proactively manage our existing accounts, including restricting balance growth and transactions on riskier accounts, lowering and, in some cases, closing credit lines, and for a small percentage of accounts repricing them consistent with the customer’s current risk profile.
Not surprisingly, issuers are also less active in trying to acquire new accounts. Nielsen reports that credit card ads were down nearly 24% compared to the same time last year.
Consumers faring poorly
The consumer is feeling their own liquidity crisis. According to Moody’s, credit card delinquencies are at 4.60%, up over 20% from 3.83% a year ago. In August, consumers paid back 13% less on their credit card bills, and the payment rate dropped to 17.40% from 20.07% during the same period last year.
The road ahead
Both Chase and Capital One expect credit defaults to reach 7% next year. Citi also said it expects loss rates to exceed historic highs.
Some analysts have even more dire predictions. A soon to be released report by consulting firm Innovest Strategic Partners forecasts that chargeoffs will reach 10% next quarter, resulting in nearly $100 billion in write-offs. The report also predicts that the banks’ reaction–lowering credit limits, closing accounts and limiting overall access to credit–will force an unprecedented number of customers to default, as consumers will have run out of places to roll their debt. Debt that was first charged to home equity loans and is now being charged to credit cards will no longer have a place to go. Innovest describes the problem as “a symptom of a deeper crisis of deteriorated consumer financial health. For nearly a decade Americans have been taking on more debt while their savings and real wages have declined.”
When I read comments like that, it makes me think that the bailout package should have contained funding for a couple of mandatory classes, Personal Finance 101–“don’t spend more than you can afford” and Credit 101–“credit is not free money.”